500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025
The satellite presentation of Kiko continues with a weaker depiction
compared to yesterday evening, but beginning to see some
stabilization in the core with a little more convective wrap within
the southern flank of the eyewall. IR satellite and accompanying
Dvorak imagery indicates a likely eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC)
occurring over the past 12 hours, leading to the marginal
degradation of the storms presentation. The most recent subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were each
6.0/115 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged
between 108 and 127 kt during the past several hours. Based on the
latest data from both the subjective and objective analysis, the
initial intensity has been adjusted to 115 kt for this advisory,
however Kiko still remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane.
With Kiko's EWRC anticipated to be completed later today, the
expectation is for Kiko's inner-core to stabilize. Given the
favorable environment that the cyclone is traversing, the latest
intensity forecast shows the hurricane re-intensifying after the
EWRC completes in the short-term. Thereafter, the current
environment is quite favorable for Kiko to attempt to develop
annular characteristics, which often allows a hurricane to remain
stronger and closer to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) than
what the more marginal thermodynamics would typically allow. The
short-term intensity forecast is actually above the vast majority of
the interpolated intensity aids, which are somewhat influenced by
the lower initial intensity. However, the latest raw output from
both HAFS-A/B show Kiko maintaining category 4 intensity for at
least the next 48 hours, and that is what will be reflected in this
latest forecast. After 72 hours, Kiko's environment becomes less
favorable, with increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, and
sea-surface temperatures decreasing below 26 C. Thus, more
pronounced weakening is expected from days 3-5, with the intensity
forecast falling back in line with the majority of the consensus
intensity aids.
Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt. This general
westward motion is expected to continue through the day due to a
building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. Afterwards,
this ridge begins to erode on its western side due to an upper-level
trough digging in to the north of Hawaii. Thus, Kiko should begin to
gain more latitude after the next 24 hours, and maintain a more
west-northwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast
period. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered in the
short-term, though spread in the various consensus guidance aids
increases to above climatology by the end of the forecast period.
Ultimately, the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the
prior one, just a little faster due to the latest guidance updates.
Key Messages:
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts
from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 13.8N 133.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 134.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.3N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 18.3N 148.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 19.9N 152.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
latest data from both the subjective and objective analysis, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 115 kt for this advisory, however Kiko still remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane. With Kiko's EWRC anticipated to be completed later today, the expectation is for Kiko's inner-core to stabilize. Given the favorable environment that the cyclone is traversing, the latest intensity forecast shows the hurricane re-intensifying after the EWRC completes in the short-term. Thereafter, the current environment is quite favorable for Kiko to attempt to develop annular characteristics, which often allows a hurricane to remain stronger and closer to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) than what the more marginal thermodynamics would typically allow. The short-term intensity forecast is actually above the vast majority of the interpolated intensity aids, which are somewhat influenced by the lower initial intensity. However, the latest raw output from both HAFS-A/B show Kiko maintaining category 4 intensity for at least the next 48 hours, and that is what will be reflected in this latest forecast. After 72 hours, Kiko's environment becomes less favorable, with increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, and sea-surface temperatures decreasing below 26 C. Thus, more pronounced weakening is expected from days 3-5, with the intensity forecast falling back in line with the majority of the consensus intensity aids. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt. This general westward motion is expected to continue through the day due to a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. Afterwards, this ridge begins to erode on its western side due to an upper-level trough digging in to the north of Hawaii. Thus, Kiko should begin to gain more latitude after the next 24 hours, and maintain a more west-northwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered in the short-term, though spread in the various consensus guidance aids increases to above climatology by the end of the forecast period. Ultimately, the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, just a little faster due to the latest guidance updates. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.8N 133.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 134.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.3N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.3N 148.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.9N 152.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
