Flossie is actually following the path that was initially set forth about a week ago; turning Northward early, before getting to the Hawaiian Islands.
As you can see from the graph below, it is moving away from us and should not heavily impact any of the Hawaiian Islands. A discussion of Flossie follows below the graph.
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 05 2019
A recent burst of deep convection in the northeast quadrant has
caused the exposed low-level circulation center of the Flossie to
drift northward, elongate, and become poorly defined. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from HFO was 30 kt,
while CIMSS ADT remained at 25 kt. Given the recent uptick in
convection, Flossie will be held as a 30 kt tropical depression, and
the general motion will be set at 290/10 kt.
Under relentless vertical wind shear, Flossie will gradually weaken
as it passes near the main Hawaiian Islands today and Tuesday. The
westerly vertical wind shear will be maintained by a deep
upper-level trough parked northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This
upper trough is also eroding the low- to mid-level ridge that is
steering Flossie. As a result, expect Flossie to weaken to a remnant
low late today or tonight as it moves west-northwestward, then turn
toward the northwest until dissipation late Tuesday night or
Wednesday. The track forecast was nudged northward slightly to
account for recent erratic motion and is between HWRF and TVCN. All
guidance shows weakening or little change in intensity until
dissipation.
Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should refer to products
issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu for information
on flooding and surf impacts from Flossie.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 20.2N 153.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.1N 155.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 22.6N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 24.0N 157.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 05 2019 A recent burst of deep convection in the northeast quadrant has caused the exposed low-level circulation center of the Flossie to drift northward, elongate, and become poorly defined. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from HFO was 30 kt, while CIMSS ADT remained at 25 kt. Given the recent uptick in convection, Flossie will be held as a 30 kt tropical depression, and the general motion will be set at 290/10 kt. Under relentless vertical wind shear, Flossie will gradually weaken as it passes near the main Hawaiian Islands today and Tuesday. The westerly vertical wind shear will be maintained by a deep upper-level trough parked northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This upper trough is also eroding the low- to mid-level ridge that is steering Flossie. As a result, expect Flossie to weaken to a remnant low late today or tonight as it moves west-northwestward, then turn toward the northwest until dissipation late Tuesday night or Wednesday. The track forecast was nudged northward slightly to account for recent erratic motion and is between HWRF and TVCN. All guidance shows weakening or little change in intensity until dissipation. Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should refer to products issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu for information on flooding and surf impacts from Flossie. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.2N 153.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.1N 155.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 22.6N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 24.0N 157.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
