Shortwave infrared images show that the center of Kevin's broad
circulation is exposed to the northeast of a persistent cluster of
deep convection, resulting from 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly
shear over the system. With Dvorak T-numbers holding steady at T3.0
from TAFB and T2.5 from SAB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.
Recent geostationary images and a 0943 UTC GCOM overpass warranted
a slight adjustment to the initial position, which now makes the
initial motion northwestward at 325/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric high
located over northern Mexico is expected to keep Kevin on a
northwestward to west-northwestward path for the next several days,
which is shown by all the track models. Most differences among the
models are speed related, with the ECMWF being one of the fastest
models and the GFS one of the slowest. In general, the NHC track
forecast is close to the consensus aids, but the initial position
adjustment required a fairly noteworthy northeastward shift in the
forecast track compared to the previous advisory.
Kevin's center is just about ready to move over waters cooler than
26 degrees Celsius and should be over waters as cold as 21 degrees
in a couple of days. Also, the shear affecting the storm is only
expected to diminish gradually, and these conditions should induce
imminent weakening. In line with the latest intensity guidance,
Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours
and then become a remnant low in about 48 hours when it loses all
of its deep convection. This scenario is shown by the GFS and
ECMWF simulated satellite imagery.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 21.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Despite a continuation of moderate deep-layer shear, Linda is
becoming better organized. Upper-level outflow appears to be
expanding over the system, but even more notably, an 1109 UTC SSMIS
microwave pass revealed that a well-defined mid-level eye has
formed. Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T3.5 from both TAFB and
SAB, and given the significantly improved microwave structure,
Linda's initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.
The latest fixes, including from the microwave pass, indicate that
Linda is moving a little faster and more south of due west, or
265/10 kt. This motion is being caused by a large mid-level ridge
located over Mexico, and the ridging is expected to maintain Linda
on a westward and then west-northwestward track for the next 5
days. There is very tight clustering among the track models for
the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast lies
very close to the HCCA consensus aid. This new forecast has been
shifted a bit to the left of the previous official forecast to
account for the updated initial position.
Linda will be moving through an environment of mixed favorability
for strengthening. On the positive side, sea surface temperatures
will hover around 28 degrees Celsius, mid-level moisture will
remain high, and upper-level divergence should be strong for the
next day or two. On the negative side, the deep-layer shear is not
expected to abate much for several days. That being said, the
system has still been able to strengthen, and the intensity models
support further intensification. The NHC intensity forecast
generally lies between the HCCA aid and the IVCN consensus, and
brings Linda to hurricane strength tonight with a peak intensity
occurring in 2-3 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 13.8N 105.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
