April 22, 2026

Oahu’s Covid-19 Daily Case Count Could Surge To Thousands By New Year, Forecast Says… A top state health care official warned that the worst-case scenario, which includes some 800 Covid hospitalizations by the new year, would be “catastrophic.”

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A group of Hawaii-based researchers has a sobering new Covid-19 forecast based on omicron’s sudden and swift spread: Oahu alone could see between 2,000 and 15,000 new daily cases by New Year’s Day.

Further, the state’s most populous island could see a daily hospital census of between 90 and 800 Covid patients by that date, according to the Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Working Group, or HiPAM.

The new numbers, released Monday, present a more dire forecast than HiPAM’s previous, days-old model, which predicted that Oahu could see at least 500 new daily cases by Jan. 1.

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