Tropical Storm Fernanda Heading Towards Hawaii
If Fernanda stays on its current track; it will be very close to Hawai’i; but should have low winds around 30-40mph, with lots of rain. There are 2 other disturbances also in the Pacific.
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 The compact storm is currently exhibiting a CDO-type cloud pattern with very cold embedded tops to near -80 deg C. Upper-level outflow is well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 50 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with various objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. Fernanda continues its west-northwestward trek, and the initial motion estimate remains at around 285/9 kt. A weak mid-level ridge is currently situated to the north of the system. Over the next few days, the ridge is expected to strengthen somewhat. This should result in a gradual increase in forward speed during the forecast period with a turn toward the west in a few days. The official forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one and is very close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCE. The tropical cyclone should continue to traverse sea surface temperatures near 29 deg C for the next 36 hours or so with very low vertical wind shear. Rapid intensification (RI) seems likely, and the SHIPS RI indices show a significant likelihood of an increase of intensity of around 30 kt during the next day or so. The official forecast goes along with this guidance and calls for Fernanda to become a hurricane in 12 hours or so, and to reach category 2 strength within the next couple of days. By 48 hours and beyond a drier air mass, seen in GOES-18 low-level water vapor imagery to the west-northwest of the cyclone, should result in weakening. The official forecast is near or a little below the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.4N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.6N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 118.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 16.4N 120.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 16.9N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 17.8N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
