Weather Update…Pacific

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of Baja California.

1. A tropical wave located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As the tropical wave moves
slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days, slow
development is possible, with upper-level winds becoming less
conducive for development thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

2. Another tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days as it moves west-northwest at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Development of this system
is becoming increasingly likely, and a tropical depression could
form early next week while it moves westward well south of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Tropical Storm Kiko:

A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation
and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system.
Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show
increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the
system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt.

The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is
good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the
system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of
a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific.
There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and
consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is
adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model
consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving
faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has
been sped up to become more in line with current consensus
solutions.

Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and
SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to
become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a
more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days,
with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the
SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how
much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit
conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some
weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over
cooler waters.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH