5am CAT 4 Hurricane Douglas In Depth Update with Graphs
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.4N 141.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1765 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
Key Messages: Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands Sunday through Monday,
and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the
state beginning late Saturday night or Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve during the next few days.
IN DEPTH DETAILS....
500 AM HST Fri Jul 24 2020
Douglas remains a powerful hurricane early this morning, although
the satellite presentation has degraded quite a bit since last
evening, with eye of the tropical cyclone now nearly completely
cloud filled. The latest current intensity estimates from the
satellite agencies came in with 5.5 (102 knots) from PHFO and SAB,
5.0 (90 knots) from JTWC, while ADT came in at 5.9 (112 knots).
Taking a blend of the estimates above and accounting for recent
satellite trends, the intensity with this advisory will be lowered
to 105 knots. Douglas continues to move rapidly to the
west-northwest, with an initial motion set at 295/16 knots.
Hurricane Douglas recently moved over slightly cooler sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) of around 78F, and this seems to have been
enough to lead to the weakening seen in satellite imagery. Despite
relatively low vertical wind shear values forecast to affect the
tropical cyclone during the next couple days, SSTs will remain
unfavorable for intensification. The official intensity forecast
calls for steady weakening during the next couple days as Douglas
nears Hawaii, with the cyclone expected to be a category 1
hurricane or strong tropical storm approaching the eastern end of
the state late Saturday night or Sunday. Continued weakening is then
forecast as Douglas tracks westward over or near the other
main Hawaiian islands and west of the state early next week.
Depending on the amount of interaction with the high terrain of the
Big Island and Maui, the tropical cyclone could weaken faster than
indicated in the official forecast, which follows a blend of the
corrected consensus and statistical model guidance.
Douglas is forecast to move rapidly off to the west-northwest
during the next couple days toward a weakness in the sub-tropical
ridge north of the Hawaiian islands. The subtropical ridge is
forecast to strengthen north of the state over the weekend, and this
should steer the tropical cyclone westward over or very near the
Hawaiian Islands Sunday through Monday, before exiting to the west
of the state. The official forecast continues to hug the southern
end of the guidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF, but if
model trends continue, this track may need to be adjusted further
northward in future advisory packages.
Based on the latest intensity and track forecasts, Hurricane or
Tropical Storm watches will likely be required for portions of the
eastern end of the state (Big Island and the Maui County Islands)
later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 141.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 144.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 18.6N 147.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 19.6N 150.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 20.5N 153.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 21.1N 156.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 21.7N 158.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 22.5N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 23.5N 171.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
