ANOTHER VIEWPOINT: Hawaii climate modeling company expects less risk this hurricane season By Allison Schaefers
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center predicted an above-normal tropical cyclone activity this hurricane season; however, a Hawaii- based climate forecasting and risk management company anticipates a below- normal season.
“We’re expecting no hurricanes, but there is a 25% chance of at least one hurricane in the Central Pacific,” said Brendan Lane Larson, co-founder of AbsoluteClimo, which launched in Hawaii in 2016. “Global warming is a general trend, but we’re expecting a better year. Not every storm is gargantuanly worse.”
AbsoulteClimo puts the chance of exceeding two or more hurricanes in the Central Pacific at 10% or less.
Larson, who is climatologist, physical meteorologist and entrepreneur, said so far the company has worked with businesses, such as airlines, owners and property mangers, as well as insurers, to help them conduct disaster and financial planning related to weather risk.
“Based on our numbers, I’d tell my clients to seek lower insurance premiums,” he said, adding that doesn’t mean that Hawaii shouldn’t take the start of hurricane season seriously. “Common sense suggests (that the) people of Hawaii should always be prepared prior to the start of every hurricane season.”
Larson said AbsoluteClimo’s forecast differs from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center because it is Hawaii- specific and it depends on a climate model that is less reliant on El Nino and La Nina weather patterns.
In Contrast, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is predicting a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity based on El Nino conditions, which it said are expected to persist into the fall. The Hawaiian Islands could face from five to eight storms from June through November, National Weather Service forecasters said.
Their 2019 outlook offered only a 10% chance of a below-normal season as predicted by AbsoluteClimo.
Larson said the Hurricane Center’s cyclone forecast does not specifically address risk to Hawaii. While sea surface temperature often drives estimates, Larson said AbsoluteClimo’s forecast considers another 56 elements like snow and ice conditions, wind shear and more.
Larson said he gave the message that El Nino is “over-emphasized” recently in Boston at the Worldwide Broker Network’s Global Conference, where he was asked to speak because of the growing impact that risk has on property and insurance.
For example, Larson said NOAA lowered its Atlantic hurricane season forecast in August because the agency expected “an El Nino to develop and have an inhibiting effect on 2018 Atlantic tropical storm development.”
“This clearly did not happen, and the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season soon after lit up like a Christmas tree. The 2018 season ended with an above-normal, eight, hurricanes, as AbsoluteClimo correctly forecast and I shared at an investment risk event a year ago in Edmonton,” he said. “Not only was the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season above normal; there were substantial landfalling storms, including Hurricane Michael, which was a rare landfalling Category 5.”
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2019/06/03/hawaii-news/hawaii-climate-modeling-company-expects-less-risk-this-hurricane-season/
