5AM UPDATES..Post-Tropical Cyclone Akoni and HURRICANE JULIETTE

Both storms should have little impact on the Hawaiian Islands.

500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Deep convection associated with Juliette has decreased in coverage
over the past 24 hours, however, the remaining convection still
wraps completely around the center. Subjective and objective raw
T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS have fallen below 4.0, however the
current intensity (CI) numbers are still at 4.5. Using a blend of
these T- and CI-numbers, as NHC typically does during the
weakening phase, yields an initial wind speed of 65 kt for this
advisory. Juliette is currently over SSTs of around 24.5 degrees
Celsius, with even cooler waters and a more stable and drier air
mass along the predicted path of the storm. These conditions
should cause gradual weakening over the next day or so, and Juliette
is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 to 48 hours.

Recent fixes show that Juliette has turned west-northwestward or
300/10 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
continue to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next 24
hours. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward within
the low-level tradewind flow. The dynamical models are in better
agreement today on the both the track and forward speed of the
cyclone, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Although showers and thunderstorms continue to pulse near Akoni’s
elongated low-level circulation center (LLCC), they have not
been sufficiently persistent or organized to continue to classify
the system as a tropical cyclone, and Akoni is being downgraded to
a post-tropical remnant low. An overnight ASCAT-C pass showed
southerly winds to 30 kt in an area east of the center, and that
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is a very uncertain 270/14 kt, as it
appears that the LLCC has re-formed west of its previous location.
A low- to mid-level ridge will strengthen far north of the remnant
low over the next couple of days, and the associated gradient
will likely support 30 kt winds in the northern semicircle. The
high will also drive the system toward the west to west-northwest,
with an increase in forward speed expected over the weekend. Little
change in strength is expected until the system encounters increased
vertical wind shear toward the latter part of the forecast period.
This is expected to cause the low to weaken and open into a trough
by day 4 or 5, similar to the solutions presented by GFS and ECMWF
guidance.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system, unless regeneration occurs. For additional
information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service Honolulu, under AWIPS header
HFOHSFNP, WMO header FZPN40 PHFO, and available on the Web at
weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 11.2N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 07/0000Z 11.2N 151.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 11.4N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 12.0N 156.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 12.9N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 15.0N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 17.0N 172.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z…DISSIPATED