UPDATE on Tropical Storm Kiko

800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that
Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However,
most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is
located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly
shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt
based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak
estimates.

Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to
turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level
ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of
days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken
(again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models
vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen.
Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly
westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the
track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE.

Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it
continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model
forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the
NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC
forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial
intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous
advisory after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

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