July 10, 2026

Hawaii to avoid recession, UHERO report says

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Hawaii appears poised to escape a recession, but a group of local economists says that high interest rates and prices will cause weaker growth in the state through the first half of this year.

The state’s gross domestic product — the value of Hawaii’s goods and serv­ices adjusted for inflation — will slow to 1.7% growth in 2023 from 2.5% in the previous year, according to quarterly report due out today by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. However, a more positive sign is that UHERO sees Honolulu inflation dropping to just 2.9% this year after reaching 6.5% in 2022. The report also says the state’s labor market already has normalized because job openings have diminished as businesses have slowed down.

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