HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE
HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE
U.S. Geological Survey
Saturday, October 21, 2023
KILAUEA (VNUM #332010)
19°25’16” N 155°17’13” W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY
Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW
Activity Summary: Kīlauea volcano is not erupting. The unrest to the south-southwest of Kīlauea’s summit has increased over the past 24 hours in association with an intrusive event that began in early October. Unrest may continue to wax and wane with changes to the input of magma into the area. The summit of Kīlauea remains at a high level of inflation and eruptive activity is possible in the coming weeks or months. No unusual activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or the Southwest Rift Zone.
Summit Observations: Unrest to the south and southwest of the summit area of Kīlauea has increased over the past day, following a few days of decline. Such waxing and waning of unrest may continue.
Renewed seismicity beneath the south end of Kīlauea caldera extending to the southwest along the trend of December 1974 vents began on October 16. The renewed activity peaked on October 17 and decreased through much of yesterday, October 20. Around 7 pm last night, seismic unrest began to increase again to a level close to that seen on the 17th. Over the past 24 hours, approximately 96 earthquakes were recorded in Kīlauea’s summit region, up from only 4 during the previous day. Most of the earthquakes related to this unrest are at depths of around 1–3 km (0.6–2 mi) below the surface.
The Uēkahuna summit tiltmeter located north of the caldera was generally flat over the past day. The Sand Hill tiltmeter, located just southwest of the caldera, showed ongoing inflation over the past 24 hours. Overall, inflation at the summit of Kīlauea remains high and has surpassed the level seen just before the most recent eruption on September 10th. However, the current rate of inflation in the region has diminished significantly since October 4-6.
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates remain low and were measured at a rate of about 100 tonnes per day on October 19.
It is unclear if unrest in Kīlauea summit region will continue and, at this time, it is not possible to say with certainty if activity will lead to an eruption; activity may remain below the ground surface. However, an eruption remains possible, most likely in Kīlauea’s summit region inside of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and away from infrastructure. Similar patterns of earthquake activity and ground deformation occurred to the south of the caldera prior to the September and June 2023 eruptions in Kīlauea summit caldera (in Halemaʻumaʻu crater and on the downdropped block). Volcanic gas emissions pose the greatest hazard to areas downwind of Kīlauea’s summit.
There is currently no sign of an imminent eruption and increasing inflation and earthquake activity (heightened unrest) are expected to precede an eruption. During periods of heightened unrest prior to recent eruptions at Kīlauea summit, signs of imminent eruption did not appear until 1-2 hours before lava reached the surface. The summit of Kīlauea remains at a high level of inflation and eruptive activity is possible in the coming weeks or months. HVO scientists will continue to monitor Kīlauea volcano closely and will issue additional messages as warranted by changing activity.
Rift Zone Observations: No unusual activity has been noted along the East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone; steady rates of ground deformation and seismicity continue along both. Measurements from continuous gas monitoring stations downwind of Puʻuʻōʻō in the middle East Rift Zone have been below detection limits for SO2, indicating that SO2 emissions from Puʻuʻōʻō are negligible.
Hazard Analysis: Levels of volcanic gas (sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide) can remain locally hazardous even though Kīlauea is no longer erupting. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas emissions have greatly decreased; however, local concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) or hydrogen sulfide (H2S) may persist in downwind areas, and residents may notice odors of these gases occasionally. Significant hazards also remain around Halemaʻumaʻu from crater wall instability, ground cracking, and rockfalls that can be enhanced by earthquakes within the area closed to the public. For discussion of Kīlauea hazards, please see: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hawaiian-volcano-observatory/hazards.
The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) continues to closely monitor Kīlauea volcano.
